TECHNOLOGY of INTERMEDIATE TERM EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION

The database intermediate earthquake prediction (1-5 years) on dynamics of seismic second kind gaps was offered still by classics of seismology[Benioff, Kasahara, Mogy, Fedotov].

The essence of a method consists of detection of zones temporal (3 - 10 years) reduction of seismic activity in a place of the future strong earthquake and tracking dynamics of parameters of these zones of seismic silence for definition of a place and force of the future destructive earthquake.

However its realizing is possible only in conditions of dense seismometric network.

The Republic of Kazakhstan has a developed network of seismic stations within North Tien-Shan area. The majority of stations (more than 30) belongs to Institute of Seismology (SPME), which abstains from publication of the data for last years, therefore forecast by other researchers on them is impossible. The second place belongs to IRIS Consortium, which data are accessible through the Internet in real-time, the third place belongs to NPK PROGNOZ of ES Ministry of Republic of Kazakhstan.

Using the data published in 1990 - 2000 and international databases, which published on the Internet the forecast study within the framework of the technology of the control of second kind seismic gaps were made.

The several seismic maps determined places of future strong earthquake (with accuracy + - 50 kms and magnitudes residual + -0,3 units of a magnitude) became a result of this study published in the Internet in 2000 - 2001.

Maps published in 2000 - 2001 are shown below.

Seismic map of preparation of powerful earthquake, February 28, 2001 in Seattle, USA with a second kind seismic gap, detected a half-year before earthquake. The magnitude is 6,8.

Seismic map of preparation of powerful earthquakes in California, USA, which was predicted by K.A. Khaidarov at late 2001: the first EQ - co-ordinates of an epicentre: 35.68 N, 121.20 W, depth 8 km, magnitude 6.5, occurred in December 22, 2003, the second EQ - 35.95 N 120.55 W 16km Ms = 6.5, September 28 2004

Seismic map of preparation of two powerful earthquakes within Tien-Shan area, published by K.A. Khaidarov on the Internet in 2000. One of them already has occured in December 29, 2003, co-ordinates 43.5 N, 79,5 E, depth 20 km, magnitude 7,0 (Gap 1).

The second earthquake with a predicted magnitude 6,0 - 6,4 should take place during the coming years in Uygur and Raiymbek Districts of Almaty province, Kazakhstan (Gap 2).

Seismic map of preparation of earthquake in region of New Zealand published by K.A.Khaidarov on the Internet in 2001.

Thus, it is visible, that the technology of creating of maps of seismic activity on the dense databases gives reliable intermediate term prediction of strong earthquakes.

The installing of such technology would allow to plan measures on maintenance of protection of the population and safety of industrial objects beforehand, some years before earthquake, thus minimizing losses from natural hazard.

Time reserve offered by this technology of intermediate term prediction of destructive earthquakes, is enough for redeployment of hazardous effects, strengthening of seismic stability of buildings, facilities and other systems of a national economy.

Besides the information offered by this technology is the basic for realization short-term (months) and operating (days) forecasts of destructive earthquakes, allowing redislocation of a means of the short-term and operating forecast into region of the most hazard, optimum resources arranging and strengthening the control of dangerous region.

Karim Khaidarov

Last updating: September 30, 2004

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